The 2018 season has yet to begin, but there is a already a huge gap for expectations between the best and worst teams. Every site, writer, and ‘expert’ is making their season predictions, but this is no March Madness bracket packed with upsets. The strong have gotten stronger and the rest have fallen further behind.
Many predictions last year were correct in picking teams like the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Cubs to make the playoffs. These teams were stacked last year and are again this year. If you don’t have these clubs in your post-season predictions, you are hoping for an underdog or thinking way outside the box. Perhaps you don’t believe in statistical probabilities.
The 2018 season will be dominated by the same teams as last year
Either way, there is a better chance of a 16-seed upsetting a 1-seed in the opening round… but that DID happen you say? This segues into the next point: there is a reason they play the games. Last season the Minnesota Twins were ‘supposed’ to finish close to last place in their division and compete for a top draft pick in this year’s draft. Instead, the Twins went on to win 85 games and made the playoffs as a wildcard.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were another team who came out of the woodworks to steal a playoff spot. They won 93 games and were a wildcard, as they were still no match for the 103-game winning Dodgers. Arizona was a common cellar dweller pick before the 2017 season.
When teams become exponentially better, there are going to be teams who get equally worse. Two teams who fit this bill were the Tigers and the Giants. Both teams were picked by many to qualify for the playoffs based on their star power and previous success. These ball clubs did indeed finish first and second – in the draft order for this season- based on their 2017 results. Predictions are based on past results and future projections, and this shows just how unpredictable those projections can be.
2018 season basketball comparison?
The 2018 post season is lining up to be dominated by the same power squad teams as last season. Yes, I just gave examples of how that doesn’t always work out, but the strategy of front offices is changing to where they feel it is okay to not be competitive in the present to hopefully be better in the future.
This technique paid off for the Cubs and Astros, both going through tortuous seasons and stockpiling draft picks before finally getting the maturity and talent level needed to compete for the post season. There are many teams who will be trying this strategy if they feel there is no chance at the playoffs. It could happen sooner in the season rather than later.
Expect to see few surprises in the standings in the 2018 season
In 2018, we could see many of the same playoff teams as last year because of this trend in losing for consecutive seasons to reap a reward. Teams no longer are aggressively trying to fill holes via free agency to realistically compete every season. The free agent market took a hit this offseason when teams did not dish out big contracts as in years’ past. Mike Moustakas and Alex Cobb were not signed until midway through spring training. They are not surefire MVP or Cy Young candidates, but they are quality players who normally would have been signed in the fall or early winter.
Winning is still important for every franchise, but so is making money. If a team can lose 90 games with a payroll of $85 million, it can surely lose the same number of games with a payroll of $65 or $55 million. Could this issue be solved by salary floor? There is not a salary cap for the big spenders, but there is a luxury tax that teams have been trying to avoid by spending less not spending as much as they could. A floor would not push teams over into the playoff category, but it would keep prevent teams from fielding Triple-A caliber teams at the Major League level.
Small market teams are the typical victims of this baseball formula, but the big market teams who implement it are even more dangerous. The Cubs were terrible for multiple seasons, but changed their entire culture with a new GM (Theo Epsetein), manager (Joe Maddon), young draft picks (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, etc.), and new players via trades/FA (Anthony Rizzo, Jon Lester, etc.). They had an overhaul of their entire organization and were content with waiting for all the pieces to become available and ready.
As the lower tier of baseball talent waits for its prospects to mature and pricey veterans to be traded away, the playoffs will be filled with most of the same teams as last year. After all the discussion and rambling and scrolling, here are my predictions for the 2018 season:
AL ROY: Willie Calhoun, TEX NL ROY: Nick Senzel, CIN
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, HOU NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, WSH
AL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY NL MVP: Bryce Harper, WSH
AL East: Red Sox AL Central: Indians AL West: Astros AL Wildcards: Yankees, Angels
NL East: Nationals NL Central: Cubs NL West: Dodgers NL Wildcards: Brewers, Diamondbacks
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox NLCS: Dodgers over Cubs
World Series: Astros over Dodgers World Series MVP: Jose Altuve
Yes, a rematch of last year’s World Series. I told you it was going to be a lot of the same from last season. This year’s Fall Classic may not be as dramatic as in 2017 but the Astros will only get better midway through the season when they inevitably call up their next young superstar, Kyle Tucker. Enjoy the 2018 season!
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