If you are a fan of a team that spends dollar dollar bills, it may come as a surprise that most team actually have to draft and develop their own prospects each year. It isn’t plausible to simply fill holes in a team’s lineup or rotation with veteran all-star free agents every year.
This dilemma of big spenders has been dealt with in a roundabout way through luxury tax and revenue sharing amongst teams. The more a team makes, the less it gets from the collective pool. If a team spends more than the luxury tax threshold, it is subject to a 20% fine of the excess amount. This percentage can go up to 50% if a team overspends three years in a row. The penalty percentage resets if the team goes back below the luxury tax threshold.
Players traded can be casualties of self-imposed salary limits
How do prospects play a part in this discussion? The answer is that those big spending teams tend to focus more on free agents rather than waiting for their own prospects to develop and become Major League ready. Teams that aren’t competing for playoff positions, rebuilding perhaps, are looking to fill their farm systems with young talent to plan for the future.
Prospects offer both pros and cons versus veterans. Benefits of having a young player who is either a rookie or may not have reached rookie status yet (no MLB experience) include controllable service time, minimum salary, and future potential.
The upside of a veteran over a prospect is talent level and ability to trade the veteran for a younger player to play for the future. Teams that are pushing for the playoffs are buyers at the trade deadline and are more likely to trade for veterans to fill holes that have occurred during the season. Teams that are out of the playoff hunt are willing to trade certain veterans to the contenders in exchange for prospects. Every general manager is trying to do the best for his particular team, and that includes valuing the present season versus future seasons.
A team that is not in the playoff hunt can double dip from the prospect pool and essentially add extra prospects from other teams. In 2017, the Atlanta Braves signed Brandon Phillips to play 2nd base, presumably until prospect Ozzie Albies was ready to be promoted. Phillips was traded at the deadline to the Angels; Atlanta had no need for him at that point in the season. They could afford to trade the veteran to both save on his remaining salary and gain a younger player from the other trading team. A team can also receive ‘cash considerations’ or international pool money, allowing them to give more money to international free agents over their initial allotment.
The Tampa Bay Rays seem to be planning on double dipping on prospects this season. Tampa Bay overhauled its roster in the offseason with signings, releasing players, and trades. One trade involved sending right fielder Steven Souza Jr. to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-team trade that also involved the New York Yankees. In return, the Rays received prospects Nick Solak and Anthony Banda and a player to be named later.
After getting rid of Souza, who hit 30 homeruns and was a plus defender in right field, the Rays signed free agent Carlos Gomez to a one-year deal with the intention of playing him in right field. What was the point of trading away a fan favorite in Souza to replace him with an older player while not saving money?
Souza joins an Arizona team in need of a replacement for J.D. Martinez
Tampa is going to try to double dip on the prospect pool by trading Gomez at the deadline. That is assuming he has a decent season up until the trading deadline and there is a team needing some kind of outfield depth willing to trade a younger player. If there is no team that fits the need, or Gomez has a terrible year, at least the team already got a few prospects in return for Souza. The Rays can’t predict what Gomez will do, but he is a name that will get other teams’ attentions if it is dangled in trade discussions.
There are other circumstances as to why a team would trade away its stars without really trying to keep them. The Rays traded Souza who is in his arbitration years. They thought they either couldn’t afford his $3.55 million salary or could get comparable results by trading Souza for prospects and signing a free agent replacement for the short term.
All of this is my speculation as to why a team like Tampa would trade away a young player like Souza. The team is obviously in a rebuild mode after also trading away Evan Longoria, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Boxberger, and Corey Dickerson. Tampa also did not resign Lucas Dada or Logan Morrison. Chris Archer has been the biggest trade target but remains in St. Petersburg; he may need to have a suitcase packed at all times during the season.
Prospects are key to a team’s success, whether it is grooming them to be naturally promoted to the parent club or used as trade pieces to acquire other established superstars. Sometimes it is a team’s best interest to keep the developed star, and sometimes it is better to move on while acquiring chips for the future.
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