Free agents have been able to sign with teams for months. Some signed right away while others waited a while to figure out their new homes. And yet others are still unsigned as players are beginning to report to spring training with the 2019 season right around the corner.
Yes, every website, blog, and analyst has beaten this topic to death. And yes, everybody knows that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are still unsigned as of February 12. Even more so a yes is the fact that both are superstars poised to enter their prime as strong Hall of Fame candidates once their careers are over. So why are they still free agents when the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues are about to start games?
The first reason is one that has been covered immensely: teams ‘rebuilding’ and not wanting to spend large amounts of money on players. They want to pay less and develop homegrown talent on rookie contracts up until those players reach free agency. Hopefully, by that time, the ball club will have had some winning seasons, a playoff berth or two, and possibly even a World Series title.
This is such a stretch of the imagination because so many teams are trying to replicate what the Chicago Cubs did when Theo Epstein took over the GM role and how the Houston Astros went from doormats to dominant contenders. The problem is, if everybody is trying to get better for the future, who is trying to win now?
One team that is undoubtedly trying to win is the Philadelphia Phillies. They have signed free agents, made trades for all-stars, and sacrificed prospects in lieu of getting back to the post season. If the likes of Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, David Robertson, and Jean Segura can lead them there, maybe teams will be more willing to replicate the Phillies in future off-seasons.
Contract expectations
Another reason there are still free agents unsigned is the gap in offers given and expected by both teams and players. Teams want the value but do not want to be committed to older players if and when their production declines. Players want to be paid what they are worth but also want guaranteed long-term deals. It is difficult to have to play under the pressure of over-producing or being outcast to a minor league contract, independent leagues, or retirement.
Players have had the expectation that they perform well when they are subject to pre-arbitration and arbitration, and then they will get paid their true market value in free agency. That isn’t the case anymore because teams are starting to always opt for the cheaper price tags or shorter contracts. Some players have signed long-term deals before reaching free agency to make more earlier in their careers. The Tampa Bay Rays used this strategy with Evan Longoria and the Phillies have done it with Scott Kingery. Kingery is signed through 2023 with team options through 2026.
The Phillies youngster is about to turn 25 and should the team pick up all of his options, he wouldn’t be a free agent until he is 32. At that point, with the current trends of free agency, he would be lucky to get paid anything to make up for the lower salaries he took earlier in his career. If he struggles to become a steady contributor, the team can release him after 2023 with minimal financial burden.
It is a win-win for teams and win-lose for players’ type of contract. The team may pay a few more dollars now, but will save immensely if the player outplays his deal. The player will make a few more dollars now but will sacrifice much more in the long-term if he plays well. And at 32, Kingery will not be getting any multi-year big contracts.
Free agents making the big bucks
Probably the biggest reason for free agents remaining unsigned is the fear of the bad contract. We have discussed that teams are rebuilding and that GMs and players do not agree on what ‘fair value’ should be. Even if a GM wanted to sign the best players to big deals to win now, there is such a fear of the bad contract that it would prevent him for making the move. Players like Albert Pujols and Chris Davis are locked into large salary multi-year deals and are not living up to the expectations. Bad players have been traded away and essentially been paid to not play for the team that signed them (Pablo Sandoval, Matt Kemp).
Teams like the publicity of signing big free agents and making headlines with a marquee move. But 15 minutes of fame are no longer worth the risk of, “What if he doesn’t live up to the contract?” This could be the issue with Machado and Harper; they are expecting to be the highest paid players in history. Both CAN produce at that level, but teams are hesitant to take on the risk of either player not be as good as advertised.
Only certain teams have the history of taking such risks on players: the Red Sox, Cubs, and of course, the Yankees are the cash loaded clubs willing to pay more for wins. This is the expectation that has been set by owners and fans and become the only way to build a roster.
Spring training is the time of year when players get to know their teammates and enjoy some nice weather while getting ready to endure the six-month grind of a season. Some players need that time to get used to their new surroundings and others use it as a light tune-up before going full-steam on Opening Day. Any player worth a Major League contract has been working out and staying in shape, because they can’t just sit around and wait for a team to call with an offer. Unfortunately, those offers that may or may not come will only be as good as what is left to go around. Somebody will pay Harper and Machado, but they can’t really pull a Le’Veon Bell and choose to sit out the season instead. Or maybe they could…
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