Tanking is a hot topic among multiple sports in today’s society. The NBA is most notorious for teams either blatantly exclaiming they are losing on purpose to get the chance at a higher or simply being flat out terrible. In the NFL, some teams may play poorly towards the end of a season once they are out of playoff contention, but it does not seem that teams play lesser players to lower their chances to win while gaining draft spots.
Baseball has come under some scrutiny from fans that claim that teams are tanking to get higher draft picks. Unlike the NBA Draft lottery, the MLB First-Year Player Draft order is guaranteed by inverse order of record. This could make it more enticing to lose on purpose to ensure a top draft pick, as teams can essentially see the draft order on a daily basis during the season.
The problem with tanking in baseball is that the draft is not a one-year fix for a roster as it might be in basketball. Even a future MVP such as Bryce Harper did not change the entire complexity of a team as opposed to basketball players such as LeBron James, John Wall, or Anthony Davis.
It takes a plethora of draft picks over a handful of years to revitalize an entire franchise. Combined with quality free-agent acquisitions, the Houston Astros probably achieved the best possible “tanking” outcome. Let’s take a look at how they went from multiple first overall picks to winning the World Series in seven seasons.
The Astros were scheduled to switch from the NL Central to the AL West after the 2012 season. They were switching leagues with no momentum, as they won only 56 and 55 games their last two seasons in the National League. In the team’s first season in the American League, Houston won a staggering 51 games. This was the start of the team “acquiring” top draft picks.
The drafts between 2011 and 2015 were building blocks for developing young talent that Houston would have under team control long enough to see them either flourish or put the team back into yet another rebuilding mode. As a side note, the 2010 draft saw Houston draft Mike Foltynewicz, who was later traded along with 2012 draft pick Rio Ruiz to the Atlanta Braves for Evan Gattis.
George Springer was the 11th overall pick in 2011. Carlos Correa was the high school phenom that became the first overall selection in 2012. Lance McCullers went 41st overall the same draft year. 2013 was the second year in a row that Houston had the top choice – Mark Appel was the draftee. The following year in 2014 was perhaps a gift in disguise, as the team drafted Brady Aiken first overall but failed to sign the high school pitcher.
By not signing Aiken, Houston gained a compensation pick in the 2nd overall choice the in the 2015 draft. This was in addition to their rightfully owned fifth overall pick. The Astros selected Alex Bregman and then Kyle Tucker.
Most of these draft picks developed according to plan, with the only real bust being Appel, whom was later traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for Ken Giles. All of the first round pieces contributed in one way or another to the current powerhouse that is the Houston Astros.
Back to the tanking discussion…
Houston had the first overall pick three years in a row. Only one of those picks ever contributed to the Major League Roster. Other high draft picks certainly were key pieces, but it did not take a top pick year after year after year. The success of the MLB Draft is a combination of scouting, timing, age, and luck among players and the teams that draft them. The idea that losing on purpose to garner a higher draft pick is good for the future is more about odds than proven; by selecting higher, a team at least has the ability to select a larger number of players. It does not guarantee their success, but it guarantees the chance to choose the player the team wants.
If a team is in position to select in the top ten of next year’s draft, it is already playing poorly. One of the ways that a team could hide its tanking is to call up younger players to give them experience. This is a trade off for team control in contract years, but it can give insight if a player will actually contribute to the rebuilding taking place.
Tanking in the open
Can tanking lead to a World Series title?
Many teams are openly honest about their rebuilding through the trading of current players. A team only gets so many high draft picks in a given season. One way to acquire more top picks is to trade for the players later on. The top farm systems in baseball typically have a combination of top prospects drafted by the team and prospects acquired through trades. The end result may be a depleted Major League Roster, but the farm system ends up stacked and ready to make an impact in future years.
Tanking is a taboo subject among fans, but it happens to a degree for teams looking to rebuild. The difference in baseball is that the tanking can occur through transactions as well as on-field performance. Trading for prospects can earn a team a double dip in the talent pool by lowering the win total for the current year and gaining a higher pick in the draft. Of course, the higher pick does not guarantee a better player, only the opportunity to select one.
There isn’t a quick fix or get rich quick scheme in baseball through tanking. A team could possibly sign every free agent possible in a given off-season to create an all-star lineup, but it would cost a pretty penny to do so. The draft process and control of prospects allows baseball teams to establish competitive franchises without spending like the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels. It may be easier to fill a hole with a new nine-figure pitcher or outfielder, but it limits the opportunities a team can give its younger players.
The tanking process might be a real thing, but it is a small piece in the bigger process of creating a winning culture and finding the right combination of players and coaches.
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