Free agency in baseball has become somewhat of a guessing game. Not just in the sense of which team will make the best offer or how much will a player get, but in the sense of a given player receiving any interest at all. There has been a dramatic shift in valuation of players since the 90s and 00s; no longer does a single stat guarantee a salary bump for the next contract.
Despite being an all-star 5 of the last 6 seasons, Cruz settled on a 1-year contract with the Twins this off-season
Teams have so many ways to show how good a player is yet so many ways to show how not valuable a player can be. This can be in relation to one’s own previous statistics or to younger and less expensive players. It’s ironic that teams don’t want to pay upfront for the veteran free agent, but those are the players most coveted at the trade deadline amongst teams in the playoff races.
Last off-season, a handful of veteran free agent players may have been more coveted in previous decades. However, current tendencies of teams led these players to accept a lesser non-guaranteed role and do it for less money.
2017 free agents
Matt Holliday, 38, had come off a season with the New York Yankees where he had 19 home runs but batted .231 in 427 at-bats. He settled on a minor league contract with the Colorado Rockies in July of last season, probably the only team willing to even give him that much at that point in the season. Holliday once again finds himself a free agent with little to offer big league clubs outside of leadership and a couple of home runs.
Rajai Davis, 37 last off-season, was finishing a one-year deal in which he signed with the Oakland Athletics and was traded to the Boston Red Sox that August. He batted .235 in 366 plate appearances, including 29 stolen bases. Davis ended up signing a minor league contract with the Cleveland Indians and an invite to spring training. He made the team, logged 216 PA last season, and found himself an eligible free agent once again in 2018. The New York Mets recently gave him the same minor league contract offer with an invitation to spring training for 2019.
Pat Neshek, now 38, seems like a unicorn as he is in the midst of a 3-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. In the 2017 season, Neshek was traded from the Phillies (on a previous contract) to the Rockies. The Phillies then signed him to a multi-year deal in the off-season when Neshek became a free agent. He is currently signed through the upcoming season with a team option in 2020.
R.A. Dickey, currently 44, may be the outlier, but he is only one year removed from being in a starting rotation. He was a Cy Young Award winner with the Mets in 2012, which garnered the team to trade him to the Toronto Blue Jays for a crop of prospects. Dickey signed a free agent deal with the Atlanta Braves for the 2017 season and posted a 4.26 ERA over 190 innings pitched. He did not sign the following off-season but was also at a crossroads with retirement and spending more time with his family.
2018 veteran free agents
This brings us to the current free agents and how some of them have fared so far. A veteran free agent can enticed both by a multi-year deal or a high enough salary. He can also be looking for a particular team to sign with or a team close to home. For many, the biggest factor is a chance to be on the big league roster. Nobody wants to be in the minors after considerable service time in the Majors.
Nelson Cruz, 38, almost was guaranteed to sign with an American League team. The man isn’t quite David Ortiz, but Cruz has hit at least 37 home runs each of the last five seasons and has been an all-star in five of the last six seasons. Albeit he has only had nine starts the last two seasons that have notbeen in the DH position, Cruz seems to be a better option at DH than most teams have right now. He played for the Seattle Mariners the last four seasons, but become a free agent and signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins with a team option in 2020.
J.A. Happ, 36, was traded from the Blue Jays to the Yankees in the middle of last season. Happ ended up signing a two-year contract with a vesting third year option. He will make $17 million per season, as pitchers with MLB success are still more desired than position players with the same experience.
Daniel Murphy, 34, was a highly coveted free agent after the 2015 season (particularly the post season). He signed with the Washington Nationals and was traded to the Chicago Cubs during the 2018 season. Murphy isn’t much of a power guy, but he knows how to get on base. Despite the Cubs trading for Murphy for their playoff run, they chose not to resign him. He signed with the Rockies for two years and $24 million with a third-year option.
Other players in their 30s to sign free agent deals include:
Jonathan Lucroy (C, 32, Angels) – 1 year, $3.35 million
Robinson Chirinos (C, 34, Astros) – 1 year, $5.75 million
Ian Kinsler (2B, 37, Padres) – 2 years, $8 million
Kurt Suzuki (C, 35, Nationals) – 2 years, $10 million
Anibal Sanchez (RHP, 35, Nationals) – 2 years, $19 million
Jesse Chavez (RHP, 35, Rangers) – 2 years, $8 million
CC Sabathia (LHP, 38, Yankees) – 1 year, $10 million
Nick Markakis (OF, 35, Braves) – 1 year, $6 million
Jed Lowrie (2B, 34, Mets) – 2 years, $20 million
Charlie Morton (RHP, 35, Rays) – 2 years, $30 million
Josh Donaldson (3B, 33, Braves) – 1 year, $23 million
Free agents looming
There is still money to be made for the veteran free agent looking to not be ousted by the younger cheaper version of himself. The reality is that the money will have to come via shorter contracts and probably incentive based. While some of these players might have gotten 4 or 5 year deals in a different era, teams are no longer willing to take on the risk of a bad contract, especially for players who are past their prime.
Many teams have given out contracts to players that paid too much for too long. Now everybody is trying to play the same numbers game whether their front office fell victim or not. Players are under club control for the first six years of service time. Then the player is allowed to sign with whomever he wants for however much he wants. We will see how that turns out for the pair of 26-year-old all-stars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Most players do not reach free agency that quickly and are subject to contract renewals proposed by their clubs and arbitration cases if renewals cannot be agreed upon.
Machado and Harper remained unsigned with players about to report for spring training
This leaves little time for players to cash in on their prime talent years. While players in the past may have gotten two or three good free agent deals, some players now will be lucky to get one. Sure, there are the short-term contracts, but with minimal commitment from such contracts, players are subject to being worth every penny and outperforming their age expectations.
The veteran free agent class may become next season’s retired players. Almost every contract signed has been for one or two seasons. If the players can’t find a way to out produce the younger talent by a wide enough margin, there seems to not be much from teams going with the cheaper players (outside of big spending teams who actually plan to compete on a yearly basis).
Too many teams have tried to implement the rebuilding process and began cost cutting with salary dumping. Minor league caliber players fill Major League rosters and fans are left with really good teams and really poor teams. A championship has become second fiddle to making a profit. Rather than use championships and good results in marketing, teams bank on prospects and the future being just around the corner. The veteran free agent is left to be the last ones to sign deals but the first ones offered up to competitive teams for the post season.
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